Abstract: In
multiparty parliamentary democracies government coalitions frequently reshuffle
the allocation of cabinet posts, and cabinets terminate before the end of the
legislature. I interpret these events as equilibrium outcomes of a strategic
interaction among political parties. Parties' incentives to terminate the
government and seek early elections depend on future electoral prospects, and
electoral opinion polls convey information regarding possible shifts in the
electoral support. I develop a dynamic strategic model of government formation
and termination, and structurally estimate the model using newly collected data
on eleven Western European parliamentary democracies over the period 1970-2002.
Using the estimated model I conduct counterfactual experiments aimed at evaluating
the effects of poll informativeness and institutional features on the survival
probabilities of coalition governments.
Abstract: Using a newly collected data set covering sixty-two countries
over the period 1945-2006, we construct a number of measures of political
tenure and we document a robust negative (positive) effect of political tenure
on the size of government surplus (expenditure). We also provide a theoretical
model that accounts for the established facts.
Abstract: Why is negative advertising such
a prominent feature of competition in the "political market"? A
possible explanation hinges on the "fewness" of competitors in a
political race. We often observe two-candidate races (i.e., duopolies) where
there is a simple economic rationale for "going negative": when the
number of competitors is greater than two, engaging in negative ads creates
positive externalities for opponents that are not the object of the attack. On
the contrary, positive ads benefit only the advertiser. To empirically investigate
the hypothesis that the number of competitors explains the volume of negative
advertising in an election, we focus on
Abstract: Eating disorders are an important and growing
health concern, and bulimia nervosa (BN) accounts for the largest fraction of
eating disorders (ED). Health consequences of BN are substantial and especially
serious given the increasingly compulsive nature of the disorder. However,
remarkably little is known about the mechanisms underlying the persistent
nature of BN. Using a unique panel data set on young women and instrumental
variable techniques, we document that unobserved heterogeneity plays a role in
the persistence of BN, but strikingly up to two thirds is due to true state
dependence. Our results, together with support from the medical literature,
provide evidence that bulimia should be considered an addiction. Our findings
have important implications for public policy since they suggest that the
timing of the policy is crucial: preventive educational programs should be
coupled with more intense (rehabilitation) treatment at the early stages of
bingeing and purging behaviors. Our results are robust to different model
specifications and identifying assumptions.
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Abstract: In this paper we explore a serious eating
disorder, bulimia nervosa (BN), which afflicts a surprising number of girls in
the
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Reactions: Chicago-Sun Times; Guardian; Science Update (radio feature for Science); Teen Vogue; USC news release; PBS Tavis Smiley
Abstract: We document the relationship
between individual educational attainment and the probability of being
HIV-infected using nationally representative data for eighteen countries in
sub-Saharan African (SSA). As the sexual behavior response to the HIV epidemic
may differ across education groups, we explicitly consider the possibility of
nonstationary dynamics between education and HIV status over aggregate stages
of the HIV epidemic. Our contribution is threefold. First, we define the stages
of the HIV epidemic by using an innovative algorithm that positions the
country-specific HIV epidemic of any set of SSA countries on the same, hence
comparable, normalized space. Second, we document a nonstationary U-shaped
(positive-negative-positive) comovement between education and HIV status over
stages of the HIV epidemic. Third, we explore which underlying margin of risky
sexual behavior (e.g. number of sexual partners other than spouses in the last
twelve months, condom use, stability of sexual partnerships and age at sexual
debut) can help explain the relationship between education and HIV. We find
that changes in the number of sexual partners (excluding spouses) in the last
twelve months largely support this U-shaped pattern between education and HIV.
Other margins of sexual behavior show much less responsiveness to the HIV
epidemic. Our findings are in sharp contrast with current pro-poor HIV policy
guidelines, and suggest that a shift toward nonstationary frameworks for HIV
policy evaluation that condition on the stage of the HIV epidemic and
incorporate the number of extramarital partners as a primary shaper of the HIV
epidemic is deeply needed.